TWO LEGENDS FIGHT FOR PRIDE : Sergio Martinez vs Miguel Cotto

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Cotto vs Martinez


7th June on HBO Pay Per View 9PM ET / 6PM PT
Madison Square Garden, New York
12 rounds for :
    Martinez's WBC world middleweight
title (159 lbs / 71kg catch weight)
 
PREDICTION : Sergio Martinez

Sergio "Maravilla" Martinez and Miguel Cotto are obviously two complete fighters who have built up big names for themselves in boxing. With these types of fighters there will be a lot of improvisation going on during the fight but the main strategy is fairly obvious. Sergio will elusively circle the ring looking to get off lead left hands from his southpaw (left handed) stance and Cotto will attempt to cut off the ring and land jabs and left hooks.  There are a lot of story lines going into this fight that you've likely already heard, the main ones being Sergio's previous injuries and Cotto's move up to a larger middleweight division. This article will focus mainly on the strategy of the fight and what to look for when watching what might be a "Fight of the Year" contender.

Main Strategy

Sergio Movement - Sergio rarely stays still and fights straight up. Rather he constantly circles the ring creating angles. This is often referred to as 'running' by opponents who don't have the skill to handle this style. This is because when a fighter is moving laterally they are very hard to hit unless they are backed up against the ropes. The opponent can never get their feet set to load up on power shots. To fight in this style requires rare footwork skills of which Sergio is exceptional. Most of the time Sergio circles to his left for the reason that this allows him to better throw his favorite punch which is the lead left hand.


Cotto cuts off the ring. See how he stays over the opponents left shoulder.
Cotto cut off ring - Against Sergio's movement the only thing Cotto can do and which his trainer Freddie Roach often emphasizes is 'cutting off the ring'. As Sergio circles to his left (Cotto's right) Cotto will need to position himself so as to be over Sergio's left shoulder, moving laterally to maintain this position vs Sergio's movement. Therefore if Sergio moves to his left, Cotto will be right infront of him. If he tries to move to his right, Cotto can land jabs or hooks with his favoured left hand. The main point is that it backs Sergio to the ropes and blocks his escape routes restricting his movement. The point of shading his opponents left shoulder is that it funnels him into Cotto's left side where he can land his best shot, the left hook.

- The combination of thee strategies if carried out as predicted could make for a combustible situation. Cotto will be lined up directly opposite Sergio's dangerous left hand straight and Sergio straight in front of Cotto's jab / left hook. It then becomes a battle of who executes their best punch better.

Other fight notes

Cotto - is naturally left handed but fights in an orthodox stance (right handed stance). This enables him to keep his stronger left hand as a lead to land jabs and hooks. He is not so good with his right hand.


"The Martinez": Sergio slips the jab while countering with his straight left.
Martinez - While he is good with both hands his favourite is his lead left straight punch. As he is circling he likes to lead with this shot and then spin out (similar to Pacquiao). However he is best known for his left hand counter punch now dubbed "The Martinez". As his opponent throws his left (usually a jab) Martinez simultaneously throws his left hand while slipping to the outside of his opponents shot. This requires impeccable timing and accuracy and it is rarely demonstrated better than Sergio.
- Cotto needs to 'cut the distance' and get in close to land his best power shots. This will be very difficult against a moving Martinez who has an exceptional reach advantage. Sergio also likes to throw straight lefts to the body to keep his opponent at a distance.

These fighters represent the epitome of intelligence and discipline in boxing. Therefore their strategies will be well planned and the fight will come down to who executes it better on the night. Martinez is significantly bigger and faster with his feet and hands. It is therefore hard to see what Cotto can bring to the table that gives him any advantage. He had better hope Sergio's past injuries are still bothering him and slow him down, otherwise it may be a career ending fight. The odds on this fight have Martinez as a solid favourite at 1.44. Not great odds but still the best bet for this fight between two legends.

BEST OF BRITAIN : THE REMATCH ------ Carl Froch vs George Groves II

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Froch vs Groves II


31st May on Sky Sports
Wembley Stadium, Wembley, London
12 rounds for :
    Froch's IBF and WBA super                 middleweight (168lbs, 76kg) titles
 
PREDICTION : Groves good value bet around 2.30 for the win.

In what is one of the most hyped fights of the year Carl Froch takes on George Groves in a rematch of their controversial fight from November last year. The fight ended in an extremely quick stoppage after Froch hurt Groves in the 9th round. Up until that point Groves was completely dominating the fight and was well on his way to a career defining win on the scorecards. After sensationally dropping him in the first round Groves had beaten Froch up for the better part of 9 rounds. What was clear is that George Groves is the real deal and there is nothing to say he cannot repeat that performance in the rematch. As the underdog with the bookies he is a great bet for the win this time around.
                                                                                                                                                                   
Froch is the favorite in the bookmakers odds only because of his reputation. Groves is the better boxer and the better bet.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Froch is a big name in boxing having established his reputation over a long period of time. Groves on the other hand has not had a chance to do so himself. It is only due to reputation that he is the underdog in this fight. In an objective analysis you could make an argument for Groves actually being the favorite. Based on the performance in his previous fight he has all the tools to become a superstar of the sport, but due to a lack of opportunity this status has not yet been realised. While his toughness, punching power, and aggression are obvious qualities that show him to be a great boxer, the more intriguing part is the subtle qualities he shows that are hard to detect when watching the fight live in full speed. The most obvious is his counter punching ability. The sign of any truly great boxer. 

Great timing, composure and accuracy were all shown by Groves against Froch. Every time Froch threw a jab Groves either slipped the punch and stayed out of range or made him miss and came back with an explosive right hand counter. If Froch threw the right hand Groves would come back with a counter left hook while simultaneously slipping the punch. The timing of the slips and counters were great. The composure amazing in considering the punching power of Froch. And maybe most impressive was the accuracy of his counter punching. In the hectic nature of these exchanges accuracy is often lost. But Groves continuously used his precision punching to hit Froch crisply and cleanly on the chin. Froch's famous granite chin was the only thing keeping him from being knocked out when any other man would have gone down for the count.
Carl Froch's terrible defence. Left hand down, right hand across his face.

Never technically a great boxer, Carl Froch has really gotten to where he is based on his punching power and ability to absorb punches. In trying to counter punch he often takes a lot of shots but is nonetheless able to absorb the shots and fire back. His footwork is sub par for a boxer of his status and his defence is almost comical for a world class level fighter. He has a tendency to block everything with his right hand often times bringing it right across to the left of his face to block shots from that side. There is a reason you've likely never seen anyone else do this....Because it's dumb. His whole right side is exposed and he is unable to counter with his right hand. When he does this Groves needs to take advantage by hitting him with left hooks as Kessler and Ward did before him. 

However with his ability to stay standing and keep punching in the face of tremendous punishment, Froch has been able to pull off wins, and this was never more clear against Groves in their first fight. With his limited skill set there is no indication he could change things to be able to turn the tables on Groves this time around unless he catches him with another lucky right hand. 
                                                                                                                                                                   
While Groves is the better boxer, Froch is always dangerous as he is one of the toughest most hard hitting boxers you will ever see.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

The only weak spot to exploit against Groves is his tendency to stay in the pocket a little too long and take unnecessary risks. Even though he tended to win these exchanges against Froch, there was no need for him to take the risk as he is the far superior boxer. He should launch his combinations and then move and reset, boxing from a distance.  Also when Froch did launch a successful attack Groves had the tendency to ball up and take a lot of shots. Rather he needs to use his feet to move away laterally.



Froch was completely outclassed in the first match up often looking like he was dragged into deep water and not knowing what to do. He could do no right against Groves until, in a lapse of the young competitors concentration he was able to land a big right hand. Even then in trying to finish him he needed help from the referee in the form of a premature stoppage. Based on the skill sets of the boxers there is no reason why Groves could not repeat this performance and there's not much Froch can do about it. If only he is a little more careful and is able to maintain his focus, the only thing between George Groves and a career defining win is a lucky right hand from Carl Froch.




EASY MONEY----Juan Marquez vs Mike Alvarado

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Marquez vs Alvarado


17th May on HBO
The Forum, Inglewood, California
12 rounds for :
    WBO International Welterweight title
 
PREDICTION : Marquez excellent bet for win at 1.36.
Juan Manuel Marquez is a legend in the sport of boxing. On the other hand there is no merit to Mike Alvarado's high profile in the sport based on his boxing skill. Hence we have a complete mismatch of a fight. The odds on a Marquez win are around 1.36, and while this might look short, it is a license to print money. Marquez might be old by pro athlete standards but he would have to be elderly to lose this fight.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
The odds on a Marquez win are around 1.36 and while this might look short, it is a license to print money. Marquez might be old by pro athlete standards but he would have to be elderly to lose this fight. 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

The fight is viable only because of the high profile of both fighters. Marquez's is well earned and in no need of explanation. In contrast, Alvarado's high profile is born from the two skilless slug fests he had with Brandon Rios. More like bar brawls with gloves on, these two fights were brutal enough to draw the attention of the ignorant sadistic side of the boxing crowd and subsequently won fights of the year. Alvarado has done nothing impressive in the sport. Nonetheless due to the brutality of the Rios bouts, he is now well known in boxing circles and he along with Marquez are cashing in on this undeserved recognition.

As far as strategy there is not much to say for Alvarado. He either stands in front of his opponent with no head movement, hands up and just wings away randomly, or he moves around the ring with clumsy footwork that looks more like a sideways gallop. This means he has to stop moving to throw his combinations and when he does wing away he has quite slow hand speed and is not particularly powerful. He doesn't move after throwing his combinations. All these shortcomings add up to him being easy to counter punch, and Marquez is a legendary counter puncher. 


Marquez may be getting old, but he has never relied on athleticism. In fact as a boxer he has sub standard athletic ability. He has always relied on intelligence and skill which should only get better with age. The only problem with his increasing years is loss of reflexes which could effect the timing of his counter punching.


Alvarado is the substantially bigger man than Marquez and has a 4 inch reach advantage. With this advantage he should seek to keep distance enough to land his punches but just out of range of Marquez's. Whenever Marquez tries to close the distance he should use those long arms to hit him coming in. With the weight advantage he shouldn't be moving backwards too often, rather he should be going forward backing up Marquez all the while using those long arms to keep distance. This requires great timing, footwork and intelligence. Three things Alvarado does not have. 


Marquez as a master counter puncher normally likes to wait for an opponent to attack him first then retaliate. However with Alvarado unable to counter punch he should be more aggressive. When your opponent can't counter it is easier to throw long combinations because while your attacking, your opponent can't. That is why 'getting off first' against a fighter like Alvarado is important as he cannot attack unless he initiates it.


Although this fight is a big mismatch, pro boxing is a sport such that these fights can still be exciting to watch. It will be interesting to see how a master like Marquez picks apart a very amateurish Alvarado and it could get brutal if Marquez is aggressive. However it is more likely for Marquez to cruise to an easy decision win in preparation for a blockbuster next fight. Either way, a bet on a Marquez win is as near to a sure thing as you can get.


THE BOXING GENIUS AND THE BRAWLER----Floyd Mayweather Jr vs Marcos Maidana

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Mayweather vs Maidana


3rd May on Showtime
MGM Grand Hotel and Casino, Las Vegas
12 rounds for :
    Mayweather's WBC and The Ring welterweight titles
    Maidana's WBA welterweight title

PREDICTION : Mayweather by decision (not a bad bet @ 1.60), Mayweather KO a bit short @ 2.60.

For all the talk about this fight being a mismatch it may just end up being one of the most interesting fights involving Floyd Mayweather in recent memory. Marcos Maidana brings a style that Floyd hasn’t seen since he knocked out Ricky Hatton 7 years ago. Maidana is a brawler who seeks to put his opponent under constant pressure. He is not the most skillful fighter but makes up for this with extreme power, intensity and toughness. Consequently he has found himself in an unexpected situation. A fight at the pinnacle of the pro boxing mountain against the pound for pound king Floyd Mayweather Jr.

Maidana’s explosive domination of Adrian Broner in his last fight raised his profile enough to make a fight with Mayweather viable. Broner idolises Mayweather and consequently tries to copy his boxing style. The problem for Broner is, unlike Floyd, he is not a world class fighter. Nonetheless, if Maidana can beat up a poor man's version of Floyd what can he do against the real deal?


Disguised left hook

After 2010 Maidana employed the services of Robert Garcia as his trainer and this seems to have paid big dividends for his career. Pre Garcia, Maidana was very one dimensional with only a strong right hand. However against Broner, Maidana’s main weapon of choice was his left hook. This seems to be a punch Garcia has developed for Maidana and it seemed to really take Broner by surprise, as Maidana used it to hurt him multiple times.


As can be seen in the video below, Maidana repeatedly hit Broner with jabs to the body while bending down to avoid a counter. Then once he got Broner to react to these jabs he would throw a left hook to his head. However, when he threw this hook the key to it’s effectiveness was he would bend down making it look like a jab to the body, Broner would lower his right hand protecting his chin to parry this 'body jab' then Maidana changes mid-punch to a hook, landing clean on the exposed chin of Broner. This worked multiple times throughout the fight. He will likely try this against Floyd who will no doubt be ready for it. The attack did not end there with Maidana constantly following up with an overhand right which he angles down over the top of his opponents shell defence shoulder roll.



Angled right hand 

Broner, like Floyd uses the shell defence a lot of the time. This involves turning and leaning sideways to block opponents right hand punches with the shoulder. This is why when Maidana was throwing his right he would get up close and start it very high and angle it downwards. With this angle he could get past Broner's shell defence where a normal right hand thrown straight and from the chin would just skim off his opponents raised shoulder.







Mayweather’s shell defence


Floyd used his shell defence as always perfectly against Canelo Alvarez in his previous fight. Canelo went to the body relentlessly with occasional hooks and right hands to the head in a similar way to what Maidana did to Broner. The difference was that Maidana closed distance on Broner so as to be able to nail him with angled right hands. Canelo never really pressured Floyd up close. He would throw his combos, Floyd blocking and moving his head making him miss everything, then back off and reset. Maidana is likely to throw the same combinations but get up close continuing to pressure and try to land the angled right.



Distance

Controlling distance will be the most important aspect of this fight. If Maidana gets close Floyd will likely clinch and hold to stop and smother the close attack. Floyd will want to fight from a distance to slow down the pace of the fight enabling him to pot shot Maidana with his favorite lead rights and hooks then move. Maintaining distance also gives Floyd space and time to counter punch.


Maidana’s best chance is to get off his combinations first and keep the pressure on until Floyd escapes. He needs to get in his face when attacking and back off out of distance when he needs a rest. He can take rests this fight as Floyd is unlikely to pressure him. 


Maidana's chin

Without the footwork and head movement to be evasive and make Floyd miss, Maidana is going to have to take a lot of hard shots to get close and apply pressure. Maidana has a great chin with which he has often in previous fights absorbed hard shots and kept going forward all the while throwing punches where other fighters would have been dropped or at least had to back off and reset. This is very physically and mentally taxing on an opponent who likes to fight from a distance and slow the pace down.



Marcos Maidana shows us a look we have not seen in a while in a Floyd Mayweather fight. He is not a highly skilled boxer but a brutal brawler. He will no doubt attempt to apply constant pressure with little concern for getting hit. We saw the damage he did 6 months ago against Floyd's 2nd rate clone in Adrien Broner. Using his disguised left hook and angled overhand rights he made Broner's version of the shell defence look silly. While Floyd may come across as decidedly unsophisticated outside the ring with his "Money Mayweather" personna, he is extremely sophisticated in the ring. He will show us how the shell defence is done right with proper timing and counter punching. When Maidana tries to close distance Mayweather will use the lead right (See Who Can Beat Da Alien? for more on lead right hands) and hooks to catch him coming in. If Maidana gets too close he will look to tie him up and hold to smother his attacks.

The last time Mayweather had a reckless brawler coming at him was when he fought Ricky Hatton 7 years ago. That has been his only knockout of an opponent since (aside from a very tainted KO of Victor Ortiz). However this was not an easy fight for Floyd who was under a lot of pressure throughout. He weathered the early storm, took control and got the KO. This fight with Maidana may very well turn out the same. But with odds of only 2.60 for a KO, a bet on the 12 round decision in Mayweather's favour is the best bet at 1.60.

WHO CAN BEAT DA ALIEN? ------- Bernard Hopkins vs Beibut Shumenov

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Bernard Hopkins revealed to the public in 2013 that he is an alien.

Hopkins vs Shumenov


April 19 on Showtime
DC Armory Washington DC
12 rounds for :
     Hopkins IBF light heavyweight title
     Shumenov’s WBA and IBA titles

PREDICTION : Hopkins by decision.

Bernard Hopkins has been fighting professionally for over 25 years. Now at the age of 49 he defends his title against the tough Kazakh Beibut Shumenov. Strange to think at his age that Hopkins is actually the comfortable favourite in this fight until you take into consideration his revelation last year that he is in fact an alien from Pluto where apparently there is no ageing.

Hopkins is obviously a complete hall of fame fighter and a full breakdown of his strategy for this fight is beyond this blog but there are a few points of interest to look out for.  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
In this fight look for Hopkins to circle to his right in order to move away from Shumenov’s best punch, the right cross. This movement also makes it easier for Hopkins to throw his favourite shot which is his lead right cross. 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

Hopkins moves very well on his feet for a light heavyweight and he always uses his mobility early in a fight. Along with great head movement and anticipation, his defence is excellent and he uses this to great effect early to make his opponent miss. The more his opponent misses the more they become frustrated and confused. The volume of their punches consequently drops and with this decreased threat Hopkins opens up a little more. In this fight look for Hopkins to circle to his right in order to move away from Shumenov’s best punch, his right cross. This movement also makes it easier for Hopkins to throw his favourite shot which is his lead right cross.

This will be the main point of interest. Hopkins is very tricky when he throws the lead right as it is very sudden and unpredictable. This is in contrast to Shumenov who, while having a very strong right hand tends to telegraph it which will make it fairly easy for Hopkins to avoid. Hopkins will be very wary of throwing the right against Shumenov as Shumenov had a lot of success countering that same punch against his previous opponent Kovacs.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
Hopkins clinches a lot after throwing the right hand lead with the main goal to smother any potential counter shot. This is a safe way to fight when throwing single punches and not combinations.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Avoiding the counter should be no problem for Hopkins however as he showed in his previous matchup against Murat. Hopkins dominated that fight with his lead right hand and while Murat made a solid effort to try to counter this shot Hopkins was just too slick and tricky. The two main ways Hopkins avoids the counter is to duck or clinch after throwing the punch. Ducking to avoid a counter to the head is self explanatory but Hopkins seems to prefer to clinch with the main goal to smother any potential counter shot. This is a safe way to fight when throwing single punches and not combinations. This is also a favourite method of Floyd Mayweather who has a very similar fighting style.

Bernard ‘The Alien’ Hopkins is a great character outside and inside the ring and his previous fight against Karo Murat was very entertaining to watch. This Shumenov fight should be no different with Hopkins using all his arsenal of cheeky tricks and mind games. The main two things to watch for is Hopkins moving to his right to avoid Shumenov's big right hand cross and also Hopkins continually tagging Shumenov with right hand leads while avoiding the counter. Hopkins has not knocked out an opponent for 10 years and has never been knocked out himself. This is unlikely to change in this fight. Shumenov is too tough and Hopkins too slick and elusive for this to happen and the result should be a fairly easy decision win for ‘The Alien’ Bernard Hopkins.




FIGHT REVIEW ----------------- Pacquiao v Bradley II



Manny still loves to fight.
Manny Pacquiao is a lot more than just a boxer. He is an eccentric entertainer with a tremendously charismatic personality. Nothing seems to phase him, and so we saw Manny enter the ring to fight one of the best boxers in the world bouncing along with his usual infectious smile. This enthusiasm along with his explosive style of boxing is why he is such a loved figure the world over. Manny made upwards of $20 million this fight and as far as anyone deserves that sum for a boxing match Manny does.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
Manny entered the ring to fight one of the best boxers in the world bouncing along with his usual infectious smile. 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Manny's mother applied voodoo
to Bradley.
Tim Bradley entered the ring to a by now familiar chorus of boos. As undeserved as this treatment is for him given his performances in the ring he  now takes it in stride. He has become used to the big stage and it showed in his demeanour. With his infamous controversial decision win in their first fight he was out to prove a point.

Bradley did a good job in the early rounds by boxing smart as he had when he beat Marquez. He was patient and constantly circled left away from Manny's left hand looking to counter this shot as described in the preview to this fight. But as Freddie Roach predicted, when Manny applied a bit of pressure Bradley's strategy went out the window and he obliged Manny by engaging in exchanges. This was a bad move
and very bizarre given his history. He hadn't learnt his lesson against Ruslan Provodnikov. Surprisingly he was standing by his words prefight and going for the knockout. Against Pacquiao this meant loading up on every shot and throwing bombs. Inevitably Manny absorbed the blows and fired back. Bradley
Bradley said bring it on.
tired from this effort and tried to mask his exhaustion by goading and taunting Manny to attack him on the ropes. Manny then took control of the fight. It would not have been wrong to have Bradley winning after 5 rounds. However, from then on Manny turned the tide and dominated the rest of the fight.

                                                                                                                                                                                    
Manny showed a level of patience this fight which we have not seen before. 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
Manny showed a level of patience this fight which we have not seen before. In recent years he was over aggressive against the elusive Bradley and then with devastating consequences  against the counter punching Marquez when he later admitted he learnt his lesson in patience after being knocked out cold. In this rematch with Bradley he was very controlled and picked his shots landing fewer but higher quality punches than in the previous fight vs Bradley. When Bradley later went back to moving and boxing Manny patiently cut off the ring. He has clearly not slowed down and this strategy of patience was very deliberate which should bode well for likely future fights.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
The challenges posed by Marquez and then Bradley has possibly served to better prepare Manny for what would be the biggest fight in boxing history........a date with Floyd Mayweather jr. 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Manny celebrates win with a
Filipino jig.
Fate has a strange way of being kind to Manny Pacquiao. In losing controversially to Bradley in 2012 and then getting knocked out by Marquez, maybe he has been convinced of the need to adapt to his opponent. He definitely showed this fight that he now has the maturity to do that. The most elusive and best counter puncher in the business today just happens to be his biggest nemesis and the challenges posed by Marquez and then Bradley has possibly served to better prepare Manny for what would be the biggest fight in boxing history........a date with Floyd Mayweather jr.