THE BOXING GENIUS AND THE BRAWLER----Floyd Mayweather Jr vs Marcos Maidana

(Click media player above for quotes and fighter related music [Warning: explicit language])

Mayweather vs Maidana


3rd May on Showtime
MGM Grand Hotel and Casino, Las Vegas
12 rounds for :
    Mayweather's WBC and The Ring welterweight titles
    Maidana's WBA welterweight title

PREDICTION : Mayweather by decision (not a bad bet @ 1.60), Mayweather KO a bit short @ 2.60.

For all the talk about this fight being a mismatch it may just end up being one of the most interesting fights involving Floyd Mayweather in recent memory. Marcos Maidana brings a style that Floyd hasn’t seen since he knocked out Ricky Hatton 7 years ago. Maidana is a brawler who seeks to put his opponent under constant pressure. He is not the most skillful fighter but makes up for this with extreme power, intensity and toughness. Consequently he has found himself in an unexpected situation. A fight at the pinnacle of the pro boxing mountain against the pound for pound king Floyd Mayweather Jr.

Maidana’s explosive domination of Adrian Broner in his last fight raised his profile enough to make a fight with Mayweather viable. Broner idolises Mayweather and consequently tries to copy his boxing style. The problem for Broner is, unlike Floyd, he is not a world class fighter. Nonetheless, if Maidana can beat up a poor man's version of Floyd what can he do against the real deal?


Disguised left hook

After 2010 Maidana employed the services of Robert Garcia as his trainer and this seems to have paid big dividends for his career. Pre Garcia, Maidana was very one dimensional with only a strong right hand. However against Broner, Maidana’s main weapon of choice was his left hook. This seems to be a punch Garcia has developed for Maidana and it seemed to really take Broner by surprise, as Maidana used it to hurt him multiple times.


As can be seen in the video below, Maidana repeatedly hit Broner with jabs to the body while bending down to avoid a counter. Then once he got Broner to react to these jabs he would throw a left hook to his head. However, when he threw this hook the key to it’s effectiveness was he would bend down making it look like a jab to the body, Broner would lower his right hand protecting his chin to parry this 'body jab' then Maidana changes mid-punch to a hook, landing clean on the exposed chin of Broner. This worked multiple times throughout the fight. He will likely try this against Floyd who will no doubt be ready for it. The attack did not end there with Maidana constantly following up with an overhand right which he angles down over the top of his opponents shell defence shoulder roll.



Angled right hand 

Broner, like Floyd uses the shell defence a lot of the time. This involves turning and leaning sideways to block opponents right hand punches with the shoulder. This is why when Maidana was throwing his right he would get up close and start it very high and angle it downwards. With this angle he could get past Broner's shell defence where a normal right hand thrown straight and from the chin would just skim off his opponents raised shoulder.







Mayweather’s shell defence


Floyd used his shell defence as always perfectly against Canelo Alvarez in his previous fight. Canelo went to the body relentlessly with occasional hooks and right hands to the head in a similar way to what Maidana did to Broner. The difference was that Maidana closed distance on Broner so as to be able to nail him with angled right hands. Canelo never really pressured Floyd up close. He would throw his combos, Floyd blocking and moving his head making him miss everything, then back off and reset. Maidana is likely to throw the same combinations but get up close continuing to pressure and try to land the angled right.



Distance

Controlling distance will be the most important aspect of this fight. If Maidana gets close Floyd will likely clinch and hold to stop and smother the close attack. Floyd will want to fight from a distance to slow down the pace of the fight enabling him to pot shot Maidana with his favorite lead rights and hooks then move. Maintaining distance also gives Floyd space and time to counter punch.


Maidana’s best chance is to get off his combinations first and keep the pressure on until Floyd escapes. He needs to get in his face when attacking and back off out of distance when he needs a rest. He can take rests this fight as Floyd is unlikely to pressure him. 


Maidana's chin

Without the footwork and head movement to be evasive and make Floyd miss, Maidana is going to have to take a lot of hard shots to get close and apply pressure. Maidana has a great chin with which he has often in previous fights absorbed hard shots and kept going forward all the while throwing punches where other fighters would have been dropped or at least had to back off and reset. This is very physically and mentally taxing on an opponent who likes to fight from a distance and slow the pace down.



Marcos Maidana shows us a look we have not seen in a while in a Floyd Mayweather fight. He is not a highly skilled boxer but a brutal brawler. He will no doubt attempt to apply constant pressure with little concern for getting hit. We saw the damage he did 6 months ago against Floyd's 2nd rate clone in Adrien Broner. Using his disguised left hook and angled overhand rights he made Broner's version of the shell defence look silly. While Floyd may come across as decidedly unsophisticated outside the ring with his "Money Mayweather" personna, he is extremely sophisticated in the ring. He will show us how the shell defence is done right with proper timing and counter punching. When Maidana tries to close distance Mayweather will use the lead right (See Who Can Beat Da Alien? for more on lead right hands) and hooks to catch him coming in. If Maidana gets too close he will look to tie him up and hold to smother his attacks.

The last time Mayweather had a reckless brawler coming at him was when he fought Ricky Hatton 7 years ago. That has been his only knockout of an opponent since (aside from a very tainted KO of Victor Ortiz). However this was not an easy fight for Floyd who was under a lot of pressure throughout. He weathered the early storm, took control and got the KO. This fight with Maidana may very well turn out the same. But with odds of only 2.60 for a KO, a bet on the 12 round decision in Mayweather's favour is the best bet at 1.60.

WHO CAN BEAT DA ALIEN? ------- Bernard Hopkins vs Beibut Shumenov

(Click media player above for quotes and entrance music)
Bernard Hopkins revealed to the public in 2013 that he is an alien.

Hopkins vs Shumenov


April 19 on Showtime
DC Armory Washington DC
12 rounds for :
     Hopkins IBF light heavyweight title
     Shumenov’s WBA and IBA titles

PREDICTION : Hopkins by decision.

Bernard Hopkins has been fighting professionally for over 25 years. Now at the age of 49 he defends his title against the tough Kazakh Beibut Shumenov. Strange to think at his age that Hopkins is actually the comfortable favourite in this fight until you take into consideration his revelation last year that he is in fact an alien from Pluto where apparently there is no ageing.

Hopkins is obviously a complete hall of fame fighter and a full breakdown of his strategy for this fight is beyond this blog but there are a few points of interest to look out for.  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
In this fight look for Hopkins to circle to his right in order to move away from Shumenov’s best punch, the right cross. This movement also makes it easier for Hopkins to throw his favourite shot which is his lead right cross. 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

Hopkins moves very well on his feet for a light heavyweight and he always uses his mobility early in a fight. Along with great head movement and anticipation, his defence is excellent and he uses this to great effect early to make his opponent miss. The more his opponent misses the more they become frustrated and confused. The volume of their punches consequently drops and with this decreased threat Hopkins opens up a little more. In this fight look for Hopkins to circle to his right in order to move away from Shumenov’s best punch, his right cross. This movement also makes it easier for Hopkins to throw his favourite shot which is his lead right cross.

This will be the main point of interest. Hopkins is very tricky when he throws the lead right as it is very sudden and unpredictable. This is in contrast to Shumenov who, while having a very strong right hand tends to telegraph it which will make it fairly easy for Hopkins to avoid. Hopkins will be very wary of throwing the right against Shumenov as Shumenov had a lot of success countering that same punch against his previous opponent Kovacs.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
Hopkins clinches a lot after throwing the right hand lead with the main goal to smother any potential counter shot. This is a safe way to fight when throwing single punches and not combinations.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Avoiding the counter should be no problem for Hopkins however as he showed in his previous matchup against Murat. Hopkins dominated that fight with his lead right hand and while Murat made a solid effort to try to counter this shot Hopkins was just too slick and tricky. The two main ways Hopkins avoids the counter is to duck or clinch after throwing the punch. Ducking to avoid a counter to the head is self explanatory but Hopkins seems to prefer to clinch with the main goal to smother any potential counter shot. This is a safe way to fight when throwing single punches and not combinations. This is also a favourite method of Floyd Mayweather who has a very similar fighting style.

Bernard ‘The Alien’ Hopkins is a great character outside and inside the ring and his previous fight against Karo Murat was very entertaining to watch. This Shumenov fight should be no different with Hopkins using all his arsenal of cheeky tricks and mind games. The main two things to watch for is Hopkins moving to his right to avoid Shumenov's big right hand cross and also Hopkins continually tagging Shumenov with right hand leads while avoiding the counter. Hopkins has not knocked out an opponent for 10 years and has never been knocked out himself. This is unlikely to change in this fight. Shumenov is too tough and Hopkins too slick and elusive for this to happen and the result should be a fairly easy decision win for ‘The Alien’ Bernard Hopkins.




FIGHT REVIEW ----------------- Pacquiao v Bradley II



Manny still loves to fight.
Manny Pacquiao is a lot more than just a boxer. He is an eccentric entertainer with a tremendously charismatic personality. Nothing seems to phase him, and so we saw Manny enter the ring to fight one of the best boxers in the world bouncing along with his usual infectious smile. This enthusiasm along with his explosive style of boxing is why he is such a loved figure the world over. Manny made upwards of $20 million this fight and as far as anyone deserves that sum for a boxing match Manny does.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
Manny entered the ring to fight one of the best boxers in the world bouncing along with his usual infectious smile. 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Manny's mother applied voodoo
to Bradley.
Tim Bradley entered the ring to a by now familiar chorus of boos. As undeserved as this treatment is for him given his performances in the ring he  now takes it in stride. He has become used to the big stage and it showed in his demeanour. With his infamous controversial decision win in their first fight he was out to prove a point.

Bradley did a good job in the early rounds by boxing smart as he had when he beat Marquez. He was patient and constantly circled left away from Manny's left hand looking to counter this shot as described in the preview to this fight. But as Freddie Roach predicted, when Manny applied a bit of pressure Bradley's strategy went out the window and he obliged Manny by engaging in exchanges. This was a bad move
and very bizarre given his history. He hadn't learnt his lesson against Ruslan Provodnikov. Surprisingly he was standing by his words prefight and going for the knockout. Against Pacquiao this meant loading up on every shot and throwing bombs. Inevitably Manny absorbed the blows and fired back. Bradley
Bradley said bring it on.
tired from this effort and tried to mask his exhaustion by goading and taunting Manny to attack him on the ropes. Manny then took control of the fight. It would not have been wrong to have Bradley winning after 5 rounds. However, from then on Manny turned the tide and dominated the rest of the fight.

                                                                                                                                                                                    
Manny showed a level of patience this fight which we have not seen before. 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
Manny showed a level of patience this fight which we have not seen before. In recent years he was over aggressive against the elusive Bradley and then with devastating consequences  against the counter punching Marquez when he later admitted he learnt his lesson in patience after being knocked out cold. In this rematch with Bradley he was very controlled and picked his shots landing fewer but higher quality punches than in the previous fight vs Bradley. When Bradley later went back to moving and boxing Manny patiently cut off the ring. He has clearly not slowed down and this strategy of patience was very deliberate which should bode well for likely future fights.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
The challenges posed by Marquez and then Bradley has possibly served to better prepare Manny for what would be the biggest fight in boxing history........a date with Floyd Mayweather jr. 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Manny celebrates win with a
Filipino jig.
Fate has a strange way of being kind to Manny Pacquiao. In losing controversially to Bradley in 2012 and then getting knocked out by Marquez, maybe he has been convinced of the need to adapt to his opponent. He definitely showed this fight that he now has the maturity to do that. The most elusive and best counter puncher in the business today just happens to be his biggest nemesis and the challenges posed by Marquez and then Bradley has possibly served to better prepare Manny for what would be the biggest fight in boxing history........a date with Floyd Mayweather jr.


THE GRUDGE MATCH------------ Pacquiao v Bradley II

Pacquiao vs Bradley 2


MGM Grand Hotel & Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada
Sat, April 12 at 9:00 PMET on HBO Pay Per View
12 rounds for Bradley’s WBO welterweight title

PREDICTION: If Pacquiao cuts off the ring (unlikely) he wins by KO. If not it's 50/50. Best value wager is Bradley by decision at 3.75 (11/4).

On the way to becoming a superstar in boxing Manny Pacquiao beat a lot of great opponents. De La Hoya, Hatton, Cotto, Margarito, and Mosley among others. These fighters all fought by constantly attacking and trying to pressure Manny who subsequently destroyed them all in spectacular fashion. But Manny always had a lot of trouble against Juan Manuel Marquez and then Timothy Bradley. Whether or not you think Bradley won the first fight between the two, he certainly made Manny look ordinary.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
‘Styles make fights’ and this fight is a bad matchup for Pacquiao’s style. Pac’s attitude is his opponent has to adjust to him, not the other way around.   
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

This has a lot to do with Bradley’s style. ‘Styles make fights’ is a common term in boxing, and this fight is a bad match up for Pacquiao’s style. This is a problem as Pacquiao does not adjust to his opponent well. His attitude is his opponent has to adjust to him. There are two points of emphasis for this fight. One, how will Bradley deal with Pacquiao’s favorite weapon, the much heralded left cross power punch. And two how will Pacquiao deal with Bradley’s elusive movement.

ONE: DEALING WITH PACQUIAO’S LEFT CROSS

In the first Pacquiao v Bradley fight most of Bradley’s strategy was taken from the blueprint to beat Pacquiao provided by Marquez. The basic principle is to wait for Pacquiao to throw his favorite straight left cross, make him miss, then counter. Pac throws this shot with full power and can find himself off balance if he misses. Marquez and Bradley both used two main ways to make him miss : step backs and slips. Marquez is a genius counter puncher and this strategy was covered in THE BLUEPRINT article. Bradley does not have the timing, accuracy and subtlety that Marquez has but is still an above average counter puncher. He also has much better mobility and speed than Marquez which he uses very effectively.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
The basic principle is to wait for Pacquiao to throw his favorite straight left cross, make him miss, then counter.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Bradley’s basic strategy can be seen in the following video clip. He will wait patiently until Pacquiao throws the left hand power punch,slide / step back just enough to make Pac miss, then with Pac unbalanced and out of position Bradley throws his various counters. The same thing can be achieved by slipping the left. Slipping enables Bradley to maintain a closer distance.



TWO : CUTTING OFF THE RING

The key to this fight for Manny will be to restrict Bradley’s movement so he can draw him into a brawl. Aggressive high action fights are one of Manny’s specialties and is why boxing fans love him so much. But Bradley will do as much as possible to make this a low action tactical fight. He is very elusive, constantly moving backwards then moving sideways making it hard for his opponent to load up on his punches and throw combinations. The only way to stop this is to cut off the ring. That is, as Bradley moves back up against the ropes and steps to the side, his opponent must mirror this movement trapping him and not letting him into the middle of the ring.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
Manny chases after Bradley like a bull charging a matador. He bangs his fists together in frustration as Bradley uses his slick movement backwards and then pulls the cape away with a sideways movement to the left again and again to thwart Manny’s attacks. 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

In the following clips of the first Pacquiao v Bradley fight below. Manny chases after Bradley like a bull charging a matador. He bangs his fists together in frustration as Bradley uses his slick movement backwards and then pulls the cape away with a sideways movement to the left again and again to thwart Manny’s attacks. In contrast, the second part of the video shows how a previous Bradley opponent, Ruslan Provodnikov, “cuts off the ring”. See how Provodnikov moves sideways to block Bradley's escape. He is patient and does not charge forward. With Bradley’s back against the ropes, his movement is restricted as he cannot move backwards. This puts tremendous pressure on the fighter and tires him out. In this fight Bradley was then lured into a brawl and got hurt on a number of occasions. If Provodnikov can almost beat Bradley by cutting off the ring, Manny, with his superior footwork and skills, should be able to dominate by doing the same. The problem for Manny is that he is not patient by nature and it is doubtful he will be able to execute this strategy.


In the lead up to the rematch, Manny’s trainer Freddie Roach has been saying that to beat Bradley, Manny must fight 'all three minutes of every round' and claims Manny let Bradley off the hook in the first fight by being too merciful. This is easy to say, but it wasn’t that Manny took it easy or even had a choice to be more aggressive. It was that Bradley didn't let him. By using his skills in footwork and head movement Bradley was very elusive. This clearly frustrated Manny who consequently reduced his work rate.

This fight is an important crossroads for both fighters but more so for Manny Pacquiao. Used to being the center of the boxing world for so long it's hard to see any point in Manny continuing to box if he loses. On the other hand if he wins, one of the biggest fights in boxing history awaits in the form of a Floyd Mayweather Jr fight. Manny is the stronger, faster, more skilled fighter but Tim Bradley maintains that he is the smarter one. Bradley will need every bit of this ring intelligence to beat Manny and in his recent win over Marquez he proved he has the ability. If Manny can restrict Bradley's movement by cutting off the ring and then unloading his power shots, there is little Bradley can do to stop him. However, it does not seem Manny is capable of this adjustment. This fight is therefore likely to play out similar to the last one. If you think that means a certain Pacquiao win, remember Bradley injured both feet early in that fight and was moving up in weight for the first time to the welterweight division. Now with two good feet, big fight experience, and 3 welterweight wins under his belt he should be full of confidence.  

This will be a 'coinflip' fight. There is unlikely to be a knockout as Bradley does not have the power and Pacquiao will have trouble finding the elusive Bradley. A decision is the most likely result. For a Pacquiao decision the odds are approx 11/10 (2.10) and Bradley 11/4 (3.75). Therefore a 'Bradley by decision' bet is the best value for what is likely to be a 50/50 fight.

THE BLUEPRINT : How to Beat Manny Pacquiao

This is a look back at some of Manny's career defining fights in the lead up to his blockbuster bout vs Tim Bradley coming up on the 12th April..... 

Manny Pacquiao vs Juan Manuel Marquez III and IV


Juan Manuel Marquez moved up in weight and gave Manny his
toughest fight since his dominant move to the welterweight division. 
After the Cotto fight Manny continued to destroy all comers 
at the welterweight division until.......... 

Juan Manuel Marquez was a long time nemesis of Manny's. Just before his rise to stardom Manny fought Marquez two times albeit at a much lower weight class. By the time of the third fight Marquez had to move up in weight to accommodate Manny who was now comfortable in his new territory at welterweight. But what happened next is a great example of where styles make fights.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      
Manny dominated the bigger fighters but looked much less in control against the smaller evasive fighters being Marquez and Bradley.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Manny's rise to stardom through the higher weight division saw him fighting opponents who were naturally bigger and supposedly stronger. This meant that they used a strategy to try to pressure and overpower Manny. However this played into Manny's hands as what was seen as his weakness was actually his strength. That is, Manny would be able to handle their power and return fire even harder resulting in him knocking out his larger opponent and/or turn the tables and force them to be the ones retreating. They were flat wrong in thinking they would win the exchanges and consequently used the wrong strategy. In trying to pressure Manny they were not evasive and presented Manny a stationary target for him to unload his power and speed on.

Marquez on the other hand used an entirely different strategy. Being the naturally smaller man with a preference for counter punching Marquez obviously would not try to pressure Manny but rather let him do the attacking and seek to counter punch. And this is where we saw Manny struggle to adapt. This style was not complementary to how Manny likes to fight and so we saw a rather counter intuitive narrative play out. Manny would dominate the bigger fighters but look much less in control against the smaller evasive fighters being Marquez and Bradley.

Manny was able to get the decision against Marquez in their third encounter in 2011 but it was a very controversial result and so a fourth fight was required. In the 2011 fight Marquez landed many good shots against Manny but could not hurt the stronger man. He was able to avoid Manny's power shots enough to last the 12 rounds but with Manny being the aggressor the judges decided to give the result to Manny. The fourth fight in 2012 was a continuation of their previous battle but Marquez realised something had to change. So he deliberately added more muscle and entered the ring bigger than ever with a newly sculptured physique that could deliver more power to his punches.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      
Marquez deliberately added more muscle and entered the ring bigger than ever with a newly sculptured physique that could deliver more power to his punches.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

This strength adjustment seemed to work for Marquez as can be seen in the video clip below. In both clips we see Marquez fake a jab to distract Manny then get low while throwing a right hand power shot from his hip. He disguises the punch making it look like a body shot but changing mid punch to land to Manny's head. While he used this identical move in both fights, the 2011 version barely drew a flinch from Manny while the 2012 version knocked him down for the first time in years shocking everyone in the process.



Fight four of course in what will be one of the most memorable moments in boxing history with Marquez knocking out the then invincible Manny Pacquiao in the 6th round. Regardless of weather this was a lucky punch or not Marquez is the only challenger able to trouble Manny since his rise to super stardom in the welterweight division. The following analysis of Marquez's basic strategy will reveal some of the blueprint on how he beat Manny Pacquiao.

BEATING MANNY PACQUIAO : THE BLUEPRINT

Feints / Fakes 

Pacquiao Strength : Anticipating opponents attacks and counter punching with great timing and precision


Marquez's strategy to neutralise strength : Constant fake punches only occasionally throwing with power. By faking, Pacquiao becomes confused as to when and how to defend against actual attacks. Marquez often throws a punch just to draw Pacquiao into an attempted counter then counters himself. Marquez would also 'mistime' his punches so Pacquiao cannot anticipate when it is going to land.



Pacquiao's straight left punch

Pacquiao's strength : His favourite weapon which he uses frequently. A very powerful and fast straight left hand punch. Most devastatingly used against De La Hoya and Hatton.


How to neutralise strength:


Move left


Marquez constantly moved left. Therefore to land his left hand cross Manny has to reach across his body making him stretch and lose balance. Even if the shot lands a lot of the sting is taken off as Marquez is moving away from the trajectory of the shot.



Marquez moving left, away from Pacquiao's dangerous left cross.
Counter punch

Marquez would be very patient in waiting for Pacquiao to throw the straight left. This is a power punch so if thrown with commitment, it will often leave the boxer off balance and out of position if he misses. When Pacquiao throws this punch he commits to it meaning he is more open to counter punches so Marquez would just wait for it and then step back slightly or slip the punch to make Pacquiao miss. He would then counter punch in a variety of ways making Pacquiao retreat. The concentration Marquez displayed in staying with this strategy throughout the fights was particularly impressive. 



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
The unthinkable happened. Marquez's devastating knockout of the indestructible Manny Pacquiao  shook the boxing world to its core.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       


All these strategies Marquez used added up to confuse and frustrate Manny. No other fighter before him had caused him such difficulties and as Manny tried harder and harder to impose his will on Marquez he would eventually lose patience leading to the unthinkable. The devastating knockout of the indestructible Manny Pacquiao that shook the boxing world to its core. And now we find Manny's career at a crossroad in the form of Tim Bradley. Will Manny recover past glories and win spectacularly or will he lose and fade into relative obscurity. We will find out April 12.