BEST OF BRITAIN : THE REMATCH ------ Carl Froch vs George Groves II

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Froch vs Groves II

31st May on Sky Sports

Wembley Stadium, Wembley, London

12 rounds for :

    Froch's IBF and WBA super                 middleweight (168lbs, 76kg) titles
 

PREDICTION : Groves good value bet around 2.30 for the win.

In what is one of the most hyped fights of the year Carl Froch takes on George Groves in a rematch of their controversial fight from November last year. The fight ended in an extremely quick stoppage after Froch hurt Groves in the 9th round. Up until that point Groves was completely dominating the fight and was well on his way to a career defining win on the scorecards. After sensationally dropping him in the first round Groves had beaten Froch up for the better part of 9 rounds. What was clear is that George Groves is the real deal and there is nothing to say he cannot repeat that performance in the rematch. As the underdog with the bookies he is a great bet for the win this time around.
                                                                                                                                                                   
Froch is the favorite in the bookmakers odds only because of his reputation. Groves is the better boxer and the better bet.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Froch is a big name in boxing having established his reputation over a long period of time. Groves on the other hand has not had a chance to do so himself. It is only due to reputation that he is the underdog in this fight. In an objective analysis you could make an argument for Groves actually being the favorite. Based on the performance in his previous fight he has all the tools to become a superstar of the sport, but due to a lack of opportunity this status has not yet been realised. While his toughness, punching power, and aggression are obvious qualities that show him to be a great boxer, the more intriguing part is the subtle qualities he shows that are hard to detect when watching the fight live in full speed. The most obvious is his counter punching ability. The sign of any truly great boxer. 

Great timing, composure and accuracy were all shown by Groves against Froch. Every time Froch threw a jab Groves either slipped the punch and stayed out of range or made him miss and came back with an explosive right hand counter. If Froch threw the right hand Groves would come back with a counter left hook while simultaneously slipping the punch. The timing of the slips and counters were great. The composure amazing in considering the punching power of Froch. And maybe most impressive was the accuracy of his counter punching. In the hectic nature of these exchanges accuracy is often lost. But Groves continuously used his precision punching to hit Froch crisply and cleanly on the chin. Froch's famous granite chin was the only thing keeping him from being knocked out when any other man would have gone down for the count.

Carl Froch's terrible defence. Left hand down, right hand across his face.

Never technically a great boxer, Carl Froch has really gotten to where he is based on his punching power and ability to absorb punches. In trying to counter punch he often takes a lot of shots but is nonetheless able to absorb the shots and fire back. His footwork is sub par for a boxer of his status and his defence is almost comical for a world class level fighter. He has a tendency to block everything with his right hand often times bringing it right across to the left of his face to block shots from that side. There is a reason you've likely never seen anyone else do this....Because it's dumb. His whole right side is exposed and he is unable to counter with his right hand. When he does this Groves needs to take advantage by hitting him with left hooks as Kessler and Ward did before him. 

However with his ability to stay standing and keep punching in the face of tremendous punishment, Froch has been able to pull off wins, and this was never more clear against Groves in their first fight. With his limited skill set there is no indication he could change things to be able to turn the tables on Groves this time around unless he catches him with another lucky right hand. 
                                                                                                                                                                   
While Groves is the better boxer, Froch is always dangerous as he is one of the toughest most hard hitting boxers you will ever see.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

The only weak spot to exploit against Groves is his tendency to stay in the pocket a little too long and take unnecessary risks. Even though he tended to win these exchanges against Froch, there was no need for him to take the risk as he is the far superior boxer. He should launch his combinations and then move and reset, boxing from a distance.  Also when Froch did launch a successful attack Groves had the tendency to ball up and take a lot of shots. Rather he needs to use his feet to move away laterally.

Froch was completely outclassed in the first match up often looking like he was dragged into deep water and not knowing what to do. He could do no right against Groves until, in a lapse of the young competitors concentration he was able to land a big right hand. Even then in trying to finish him he needed help from the referee in the form of a premature stoppage. Based on the skill sets of the boxers there is no reason why Groves could not repeat this performance and there's not much Froch can do about it. If only he is a little more careful and is able to maintain his focus, the only thing between George Groves and a career defining win is a lucky right hand from Carl Froch.

EASY MONEY----Juan Marquez vs Mike Alvarado

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Marquez vs Alvarado

17th May on HBO

The Forum, Inglewood, California

12 rounds for :

    WBO International Welterweight title
 

PREDICTION : Marquez excellent bet for win at 1.36.

Juan Manuel Marquez is a legend in the sport of boxing. On the other hand there is no merit to Mike Alvarado's high profile in the sport based on his boxing skill. Hence we have a complete mismatch of a fight. The odds on a Marquez win are around 1.36, and while this might look short, it is a license to print money. Marquez might be old by pro athlete standards but he would have to be elderly to lose this fight.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
The odds on a Marquez win are around 1.36 and while this might look short, it is a license to print money. Marquez might be old by pro athlete standards but he would have to be elderly to lose this fight. 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

The fight is viable only because of the high profile of both fighters. Marquez's is well earned and in no need of explanation. In contrast, Alvarado's high profile is born from the two skilless slug fests he had with Brandon Rios. More like bar brawls with gloves on, these two fights were brutal enough to draw the attention of the ignorant sadistic side of the boxing crowd and subsequently won fights of the year. Alvarado has done nothing impressive in the sport. Nonetheless due to the brutality of the Rios bouts, he is now well known in boxing circles and he along with Marquez are cashing in on this undeserved recognition.

As far as strategy there is not much to say for Alvarado. He either stands in front of his opponent with no head movement, hands up and just wings away randomly, or he moves around the ring with clumsy footwork that looks more like a sideways gallop. This means he has to stop moving to throw his combinations and when he does wing away he has quite slow hand speed and is not particularly powerful. He doesn't move after throwing his combinations. All these shortcomings add up to him being easy to counter punch, and Marquez is a legendary counter puncher. 

Marquez may be getting old, but he has never relied on athleticism. In fact as a boxer he has sub standard athletic ability. He has always relied on intelligence and skill which should only get better with age. The only problem with his increasing years is loss of reflexes which could effect the timing of his counter punching.

Alvarado is the substantially bigger man than Marquez and has a 4 inch reach advantage. With this advantage he should seek to keep distance enough to land his punches but just out of range of Marquez's. Whenever Marquez tries to close the distance he should use those long arms to hit him coming in. With the weight advantage he shouldn't be moving backwards too often, rather he should be going forward backing up Marquez all the while using those long arms to keep distance. This requires great timing, footwork and intelligence. Three things Alvarado does not have. 

Marquez as a master counter puncher normally likes to wait for an opponent to attack him first then retaliate. However with Alvarado unable to counter punch he should be more aggressive. When your opponent can't counter it is easier to throw long combinations because while your attacking, your opponent can't. That is why 'getting off first' against a fighter like Alvarado is important as he cannot attack unless he initiates it.

Although this fight is a big mismatch, pro boxing is a sport such that these fights can still be exciting to watch. It will be interesting to see how a master like Marquez picks apart a very amateurish Alvarado and it could get brutal if Marquez is aggressive. However it is more likely for Marquez to cruise to an easy decision win in preparation for a blockbuster next fight. Either way, a bet on a Marquez win is as near to a sure thing as you can get.