THE GRUDGE MATCH------------ Pacquiao v Bradley II

Pacquiao vs Bradley 2

MGM Grand Hotel & Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada

Sat, April 12 at 9:00 PMET on HBO Pay Per View

12 rounds for Bradley’s WBO welterweight title

PREDICTION: If Pacquiao cuts off the ring (unlikely) he wins by KO. If not it's 50/50. Best value wager is Bradley by decision at 3.75 (11/4).

On the way to becoming a superstar in boxing Manny Pacquiao beat a lot of great opponents. De La Hoya, Hatton, Cotto, Margarito, and Mosley among others. These fighters all fought by constantly attacking and trying to pressure Manny who subsequently destroyed them all in spectacular fashion. But Manny always had a lot of trouble against Juan Manuel Marquez and then Timothy Bradley. Whether or not you think Bradley won the first fight between the two, he certainly made Manny look ordinary.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

‘Styles make fights’ and this fight is a bad matchup for Pacquiao’s style. Pac’s attitude is his opponent has to adjust to him, not the other way around.   

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

This has a lot to do with Bradley’s style. ‘Styles make fights’ is a common term in boxing, and this fight is a bad match up for Pacquiao’s style. This is a problem as Pacquiao does not adjust to his opponent well. His attitude is his opponent has to adjust to him. There are two points of emphasis for this fight. One, how will Bradley deal with Pacquiao’s favorite weapon, the much heralded left cross power punch. And two how will Pacquiao deal with Bradley’s elusive movement.

ONE: DEALING WITH PACQUIAO’S LEFT CROSS

In the first Pacquiao v Bradley fight most of Bradley’s strategy was taken from the blueprint to beat Pacquiao provided by Marquez. The basic principle is to wait for Pacquiao to throw his favorite straight left cross, make him miss, then counter. Pac throws this shot with full power and can find himself off balance if he misses. Marquez and Bradley both used two main ways to make him miss : step backs and slips. Marquez is a genius counter puncher and this strategy was covered in THE BLUEPRINT article. Bradley does not have the timing, accuracy and subtlety that Marquez has but is still an above average counter puncher. He also has much better mobility and speed than Marquez which he uses very effectively.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
The basic principle is to wait for Pacquiao to throw his favorite straight left cross, make him miss, then counter.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Bradley’s basic strategy can be seen in the following video clip. He will wait patiently until Pacquiao throws the left hand power punch,slide / step back just enough to make Pac miss, then with Pac unbalanced and out of position Bradley throws his various counters. The same thing can be achieved by slipping the left. Slipping enables Bradley to maintain a closer distance.

TWO : CUTTING OFF THE RING

The key to this fight for Manny will be to restrict Bradley’s movement so he can draw him into a brawl. Aggressive high action fights are one of Manny’s specialties and is why boxing fans love him so much. But Bradley will do as much as possible to make this a low action tactical fight. He is very elusive, constantly moving backwards then moving sideways making it hard for his opponent to load up on his punches and throw combinations. The only way to stop this is to cut off the ring. That is, as Bradley moves back up against the ropes and steps to the side, his opponent must mirror this movement trapping him and not letting him into the middle of the ring.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
Manny chases after Bradley like a bull charging a matador. He bangs his fists together in frustration as Bradley uses his slick movement backwards and then pulls the cape away with a sideways movement to the left again and again to thwart Manny’s attacks. 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

In the following clips of the first Pacquiao v Bradley fight below. Manny chases after Bradley like a bull charging a matador. He bangs his fists together in frustration as Bradley uses his slick movement backwards and then pulls the cape away with a sideways movement to the left again and again to thwart Manny’s attacks. In contrast, the second part of the video shows how a previous Bradley opponent, Ruslan Provodnikov, “cuts off the ring”. See how Provodnikov moves sideways to block Bradley's escape. He is patient and does not charge forward. With Bradley’s back against the ropes, his movement is restricted as he cannot move backwards. This puts tremendous pressure on the fighter and tires him out. In this fight Bradley was then lured into a brawl and got hurt on a number of occasions. If Provodnikov can almost beat Bradley by cutting off the ring, Manny, with his superior footwork and skills, should be able to dominate by doing the same. The problem for Manny is that he is not patient by nature and it is doubtful he will be able to execute this strategy.

In the lead up to the rematch, Manny’s trainer Freddie Roach has been saying that to beat Bradley, Manny must fight 'all three minutes of every round' and claims Manny let Bradley off the hook in the first fight by being too merciful. This is easy to say, but it wasn’t that Manny took it easy or even had a choice to be more aggressive. It was that Bradley didn't let him. By using his skills in footwork and head movement Bradley was very elusive. This clearly frustrated Manny who consequently reduced his work rate.

This fight is an important crossroads for both fighters but more so for Manny Pacquiao. Used to being the center of the boxing world for so long it's hard to see any point in Manny continuing to box if he loses. On the other hand if he wins, one of the biggest fights in boxing history awaits in the form of a Floyd Mayweather Jr fight. Manny is the stronger, faster, more skilled fighter but Tim Bradley maintains that he is the smarter one. Bradley will need every bit of this ring intelligence to beat Manny and in his recent win over Marquez he proved he has the ability. If Manny can restrict Bradley's movement by cutting off the ring and then unloading his power shots, there is little Bradley can do to stop him. However, it does not seem Manny is capable of this adjustment. This fight is therefore likely to play out similar to the last one. If you think that means a certain Pacquiao win, remember Bradley injured both feet early in that fight and was moving up in weight for the first time to the welterweight division. Now with two good feet, big fight experience, and 3 welterweight wins under his belt he should be full of confidence.  

This will be a 'coinflip' fight. There is unlikely to be a knockout as Bradley does not have the power and Pacquiao will have trouble finding the elusive Bradley. A decision is the most likely result. For a Pacquiao decision the odds are approx 11/10 (2.10) and Bradley 11/4 (3.75). Therefore a 'Bradley by decision' bet is the best value for what is likely to be a 50/50 fight.

THE BLUEPRINT : How to Beat Manny Pacquiao

This is a look back at some of Manny's career defining fights in the lead up to his blockbuster bout vs Tim Bradley coming up on the 12th April..... 

Manny Pacquiao vs Juan Manuel Marquez III and IV

Juan Manuel Marquez moved up in weight and gave Manny his
toughest fight since his dominant move to the welterweight division. 

After the Cotto fight Manny continued to destroy all comers 
at the welterweight division until.......... 

Juan Manuel Marquez was a long time nemesis of Manny's. Just before his rise to stardom Manny fought Marquez two times albeit at a much lower weight class. By the time of the third fight Marquez had to move up in weight to accommodate Manny who was now comfortable in his new territory at welterweight. But what happened next is a great example of where styles make fights.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      
Manny dominated the bigger fighters but looked much less in control against the smaller evasive fighters being Marquez and Bradley.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

Manny's rise to stardom through the higher weight division saw him fighting opponents who were naturally bigger and supposedly stronger. This meant that they used a strategy to try to pressure and overpower Manny. However this played into Manny's hands as what was seen as his weakness was actually his strength. That is, Manny would be able to handle their power and return fire even harder resulting in him knocking out his larger opponent and/or turn the tables and force them to be the ones retreating. They were flat wrong in thinking they would win the exchanges and consequently used the wrong strategy. In trying to pressure Manny they were not evasive and presented Manny a stationary target for him to unload his power and speed on.

Marquez on the other hand used an entirely different strategy. Being the naturally smaller man with a preference for counter punching Marquez obviously would not try to pressure Manny but rather let him do the attacking and seek to counter punch. And this is where we saw Manny struggle to adapt. This style was not complementary to how Manny likes to fight and so we saw a rather counter intuitive narrative play out. Manny would dominate the bigger fighters but look much less in control against the smaller evasive fighters being Marquez and Bradley.

Manny was able to get the decision against Marquez in their third encounter in 2011 but it was a very controversial result and so a fourth fight was required. In the 2011 fight Marquez landed many good shots against Manny but could not hurt the stronger man. He was able to avoid Manny's power shots enough to last the 12 rounds but with Manny being the aggressor the judges decided to give the result to Manny. The fourth fight in 2012 was a continuation of their previous battle but Marquez realised something had to change. So he deliberately added more muscle and entered the ring bigger than ever with a newly sculptured physique that could deliver more power to his punches.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      
Marquez deliberately added more muscle and entered the ring bigger than ever with a newly sculptured physique that could deliver more power to his punches.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      

This strength adjustment seemed to work for Marquez as can be seen in the video clip below. In both clips we see Marquez fake a jab to distract Manny then get low while throwing a right hand power shot from his hip. He disguises the punch making it look like a body shot but changing mid punch to land to Manny's head. While he used this identical move in both fights, the 2011 version barely drew a flinch from Manny while the 2012 version knocked him down for the first time in years shocking everyone in the process.

Fight four of course in what will be one of the most memorable moments in boxing history with Marquez knocking out the then invincible Manny Pacquiao in the 6th round. Regardless of weather this was a lucky punch or not Marquez is the only challenger able to trouble Manny since his rise to super stardom in the welterweight division. The following analysis of Marquez's basic strategy will reveal some of the blueprint on how he beat Manny Pacquiao.

BEATING MANNY PACQUIAO : THE BLUEPRINT

Feints / Fakes 

Pacquiao Strength : Anticipating opponents attacks and counter punching with great timing and precision

Marquez's strategy to neutralise strength : Constant fake punches only occasionally throwing with power. By faking, Pacquiao becomes confused as to when and how to defend against actual attacks. Marquez often throws a punch just to draw Pacquiao into an attempted counter then counters himself. Marquez would also 'mistime' his punches so Pacquiao cannot anticipate when it is going to land.

Pacquiao's straight left punch

Pacquiao's strength : His favourite weapon which he uses frequently. A very powerful and fast straight left hand punch. Most devastatingly used against De La Hoya and Hatton.

How to neutralise strength:

Move left

Marquez constantly moved left. Therefore to land his left hand cross Manny has to reach across his body making him stretch and lose balance. Even if the shot lands a lot of the sting is taken off as Marquez is moving away from the trajectory of the shot.

Marquez moving left, away from Pacquiao's dangerous left cross.

Counter punch

Marquez would be very patient in waiting for Pacquiao to throw the straight left. This is a power punch so if thrown with commitment, it will often leave the boxer off balance and out of position if he misses. When Pacquiao throws this punch he commits to it meaning he is more open to counter punches so Marquez would just wait for it and then step back slightly or slip the punch to make Pacquiao miss. He would then counter punch in a variety of ways making Pacquiao retreat. The concentration Marquez displayed in staying with this strategy throughout the fights was particularly impressive. 

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    
The unthinkable happened. Marquez's devastating knockout of the indestructible Manny Pacquiao  shook the boxing world to its core.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       


All these strategies Marquez used added up to confuse and frustrate Manny. No other fighter before him had caused him such difficulties and as Manny tried harder and harder to impose his will on Marquez he would eventually lose patience leading to the unthinkable. The devastating knockout of the indestructible Manny Pacquiao that shook the boxing world to its core. And now we find Manny's career at a crossroad in the form of Tim Bradley. Will Manny recover past glories and win spectacularly or will he lose and fade into relative obscurity. We will find out April 12.