TWO LEGENDS FIGHT FOR PRIDE : Sergio Martinez vs Miguel Cotto

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Cotto vs Martinez

7th June on HBO Pay Per View 9PM ET / 6PM PT

Madison Square Garden, New York

12 rounds for :

    Martinez's WBC world middleweight
title (159 lbs / 71kg catch weight)
 

PREDICTION : Sergio Martinez

Sergio "Maravilla" Martinez and Miguel Cotto are obviously two complete fighters who have built up big names for themselves in boxing. With these types of fighters there will be a lot of improvisation going on during the fight but the main strategy is fairly obvious. Sergio will elusively circle the ring looking to get off lead left hands from his southpaw (left handed) stance and Cotto will attempt to cut off the ring and land jabs and left hooks.  There are a lot of story lines going into this fight that you've likely already heard, the main ones being Sergio's previous injuries and Cotto's move up to a larger middleweight division. This article will focus mainly on the strategy of the fight and what to look for when watching what might be a "Fight of the Year" contender.

Main Strategy

Sergio Movement - Sergio rarely stays still and fights straight up. Rather he constantly circles the ring creating angles. This is often referred to as 'running' by opponents who don't have the skill to handle this style. This is because when a fighter is moving laterally they are very hard to hit unless they are backed up against the ropes. The opponent can never get their feet set to load up on power shots. To fight in this style requires rare footwork skills of which Sergio is exceptional. Most of the time Sergio circles to his left for the reason that this allows him to better throw his favorite punch which is the lead left hand.

Cotto cuts off the ring. See how he stays over the opponents left shoulder.

Cotto cut off ring - Against Sergio's movement the only thing Cotto can do and which his trainer Freddie Roach often emphasizes is 'cutting off the ring'. As Sergio circles to his left (Cotto's right) Cotto will need to position himself so as to be over Sergio's left shoulder, moving laterally to maintain this position vs Sergio's movement. Therefore if Sergio moves to his left, Cotto will be right infront of him. If he tries to move to his right, Cotto can land jabs or hooks with his favoured left hand. The main point is that it backs Sergio to the ropes and blocks his escape routes restricting his movement. The point of shading his opponents left shoulder is that it funnels him into Cotto's left side where he can land his best shot, the left hook.

- The combination of thee strategies if carried out as predicted could make for a combustible situation. Cotto will be lined up directly opposite Sergio's dangerous left hand straight and Sergio straight in front of Cotto's jab / left hook. It then becomes a battle of who executes their best punch better.

Other fight notes

Cotto - is naturally left handed but fights in an orthodox stance (right handed stance). This enables him to keep his stronger left hand as a lead to land jabs and hooks. He is not so good with his right hand.

"The Martinez": Sergio slips the jab while countering with his straight left.

Martinez - While he is good with both hands his favourite is his lead left straight punch. As he is circling he likes to lead with this shot and then spin out (similar to Pacquiao). However he is best known for his left hand counter punch now dubbed "The Martinez". As his opponent throws his left (usually a jab) Martinez simultaneously throws his left hand while slipping to the outside of his opponents shot. This requires impeccable timing and accuracy and it is rarely demonstrated better than Sergio.

- Cotto needs to 'cut the distance' and get in close to land his best power shots. This will be very difficult against a moving Martinez who has an exceptional reach advantage. Sergio also likes to throw straight lefts to the body to keep his opponent at a distance.

These fighters represent the epitome of intelligence and discipline in boxing. Therefore their strategies will be well planned and the fight will come down to who executes it better on the night. Martinez is significantly bigger and faster with his feet and hands. It is therefore hard to see what Cotto can bring to the table that gives him any advantage. He had better hope Sergio's past injuries are still bothering him and slow him down, otherwise it may be a career ending fight. The odds on this fight have Martinez as a solid favourite at 1.44. Not great odds but still the best bet for this fight between two legends.

WHO CAN BEAT DA ALIEN? ------- Bernard Hopkins vs Beibut Shumenov

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Bernard Hopkins revealed to the public in 2013 that he is an alien.

Hopkins vs Shumenov

April 19 on Showtime

DC Armory Washington DC

12 rounds for :

     Hopkins IBF light heavyweight title

     Shumenov’s WBA and IBA titles

PREDICTION : Hopkins by decision.

Bernard Hopkins has been fighting professionally for over 25 years. Now at the age of 49 he defends his title against the tough Kazakh Beibut Shumenov. Strange to think at his age that Hopkins is actually the comfortable favourite in this fight until you take into consideration his revelation last year that he is in fact an alien from Pluto where apparently there is no ageing.

Hopkins is obviously a complete hall of fame fighter and a full breakdown of his strategy for this fight is beyond this blog but there are a few points of interest to look out for.  
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
In this fight look for Hopkins to circle to his right in order to move away from Shumenov’s best punch, the right cross. This movement also makes it easier for Hopkins to throw his favourite shot which is his lead right cross. 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 

Hopkins moves very well on his feet for a light heavyweight and he always uses his mobility early in a fight. Along with great head movement and anticipation, his defence is excellent and he uses this to great effect early to make his opponent miss. The more his opponent misses the more they become frustrated and confused. The volume of their punches consequently drops and with this decreased threat Hopkins opens up a little more. In this fight look for Hopkins to circle to his right in order to move away from Shumenov’s best punch, his right cross. This movement also makes it easier for Hopkins to throw his favourite shot which is his lead right cross.

This will be the main point of interest. Hopkins is very tricky when he throws the lead right as it is very sudden and unpredictable. This is in contrast to Shumenov who, while having a very strong right hand tends to telegraph it which will make it fairly easy for Hopkins to avoid. Hopkins will be very wary of throwing the right against Shumenov as Shumenov had a lot of success countering that same punch against his previous opponent Kovacs.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
Hopkins clinches a lot after throwing the right hand lead with the main goal to smother any potential counter shot. This is a safe way to fight when throwing single punches and not combinations.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Avoiding the counter should be no problem for Hopkins however as he showed in his previous matchup against Murat. Hopkins dominated that fight with his lead right hand and while Murat made a solid effort to try to counter this shot Hopkins was just too slick and tricky. The two main ways Hopkins avoids the counter is to duck or clinch after throwing the punch. Ducking to avoid a counter to the head is self explanatory but Hopkins seems to prefer to clinch with the main goal to smother any potential counter shot. This is a safe way to fight when throwing single punches and not combinations. This is also a favourite method of Floyd Mayweather who has a very similar fighting style.

Bernard ‘The Alien’ Hopkins is a great character outside and inside the ring and his previous fight against Karo Murat was very entertaining to watch. This Shumenov fight should be no different with Hopkins using all his arsenal of cheeky tricks and mind games. The main two things to watch for is Hopkins moving to his right to avoid Shumenov's big right hand cross and also Hopkins continually tagging Shumenov with right hand leads while avoiding the counter. Hopkins has not knocked out an opponent for 10 years and has never been knocked out himself. This is unlikely to change in this fight. Shumenov is too tough and Hopkins too slick and elusive for this to happen and the result should be a fairly easy decision win for ‘The Alien’ Bernard Hopkins.

THE GRUDGE MATCH------------ Pacquiao v Bradley II

Pacquiao vs Bradley 2

MGM Grand Hotel & Casino, Las Vegas, Nevada

Sat, April 12 at 9:00 PMET on HBO Pay Per View

12 rounds for Bradley’s WBO welterweight title

PREDICTION: If Pacquiao cuts off the ring (unlikely) he wins by KO. If not it's 50/50. Best value wager is Bradley by decision at 3.75 (11/4).

On the way to becoming a superstar in boxing Manny Pacquiao beat a lot of great opponents. De La Hoya, Hatton, Cotto, Margarito, and Mosley among others. These fighters all fought by constantly attacking and trying to pressure Manny who subsequently destroyed them all in spectacular fashion. But Manny always had a lot of trouble against Juan Manuel Marquez and then Timothy Bradley. Whether or not you think Bradley won the first fight between the two, he certainly made Manny look ordinary.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

‘Styles make fights’ and this fight is a bad matchup for Pacquiao’s style. Pac’s attitude is his opponent has to adjust to him, not the other way around.   

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

This has a lot to do with Bradley’s style. ‘Styles make fights’ is a common term in boxing, and this fight is a bad match up for Pacquiao’s style. This is a problem as Pacquiao does not adjust to his opponent well. His attitude is his opponent has to adjust to him. There are two points of emphasis for this fight. One, how will Bradley deal with Pacquiao’s favorite weapon, the much heralded left cross power punch. And two how will Pacquiao deal with Bradley’s elusive movement.

ONE: DEALING WITH PACQUIAO’S LEFT CROSS

In the first Pacquiao v Bradley fight most of Bradley’s strategy was taken from the blueprint to beat Pacquiao provided by Marquez. The basic principle is to wait for Pacquiao to throw his favorite straight left cross, make him miss, then counter. Pac throws this shot with full power and can find himself off balance if he misses. Marquez and Bradley both used two main ways to make him miss : step backs and slips. Marquez is a genius counter puncher and this strategy was covered in THE BLUEPRINT article. Bradley does not have the timing, accuracy and subtlety that Marquez has but is still an above average counter puncher. He also has much better mobility and speed than Marquez which he uses very effectively.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
The basic principle is to wait for Pacquiao to throw his favorite straight left cross, make him miss, then counter.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                

Bradley’s basic strategy can be seen in the following video clip. He will wait patiently until Pacquiao throws the left hand power punch,slide / step back just enough to make Pac miss, then with Pac unbalanced and out of position Bradley throws his various counters. The same thing can be achieved by slipping the left. Slipping enables Bradley to maintain a closer distance.

TWO : CUTTING OFF THE RING

The key to this fight for Manny will be to restrict Bradley’s movement so he can draw him into a brawl. Aggressive high action fights are one of Manny’s specialties and is why boxing fans love him so much. But Bradley will do as much as possible to make this a low action tactical fight. He is very elusive, constantly moving backwards then moving sideways making it hard for his opponent to load up on his punches and throw combinations. The only way to stop this is to cut off the ring. That is, as Bradley moves back up against the ropes and steps to the side, his opponent must mirror this movement trapping him and not letting him into the middle of the ring.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
Manny chases after Bradley like a bull charging a matador. He bangs his fists together in frustration as Bradley uses his slick movement backwards and then pulls the cape away with a sideways movement to the left again and again to thwart Manny’s attacks. 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             

In the following clips of the first Pacquiao v Bradley fight below. Manny chases after Bradley like a bull charging a matador. He bangs his fists together in frustration as Bradley uses his slick movement backwards and then pulls the cape away with a sideways movement to the left again and again to thwart Manny’s attacks. In contrast, the second part of the video shows how a previous Bradley opponent, Ruslan Provodnikov, “cuts off the ring”. See how Provodnikov moves sideways to block Bradley's escape. He is patient and does not charge forward. With Bradley’s back against the ropes, his movement is restricted as he cannot move backwards. This puts tremendous pressure on the fighter and tires him out. In this fight Bradley was then lured into a brawl and got hurt on a number of occasions. If Provodnikov can almost beat Bradley by cutting off the ring, Manny, with his superior footwork and skills, should be able to dominate by doing the same. The problem for Manny is that he is not patient by nature and it is doubtful he will be able to execute this strategy.

In the lead up to the rematch, Manny’s trainer Freddie Roach has been saying that to beat Bradley, Manny must fight 'all three minutes of every round' and claims Manny let Bradley off the hook in the first fight by being too merciful. This is easy to say, but it wasn’t that Manny took it easy or even had a choice to be more aggressive. It was that Bradley didn't let him. By using his skills in footwork and head movement Bradley was very elusive. This clearly frustrated Manny who consequently reduced his work rate.

This fight is an important crossroads for both fighters but more so for Manny Pacquiao. Used to being the center of the boxing world for so long it's hard to see any point in Manny continuing to box if he loses. On the other hand if he wins, one of the biggest fights in boxing history awaits in the form of a Floyd Mayweather Jr fight. Manny is the stronger, faster, more skilled fighter but Tim Bradley maintains that he is the smarter one. Bradley will need every bit of this ring intelligence to beat Manny and in his recent win over Marquez he proved he has the ability. If Manny can restrict Bradley's movement by cutting off the ring and then unloading his power shots, there is little Bradley can do to stop him. However, it does not seem Manny is capable of this adjustment. This fight is therefore likely to play out similar to the last one. If you think that means a certain Pacquiao win, remember Bradley injured both feet early in that fight and was moving up in weight for the first time to the welterweight division. Now with two good feet, big fight experience, and 3 welterweight wins under his belt he should be full of confidence.  

This will be a 'coinflip' fight. There is unlikely to be a knockout as Bradley does not have the power and Pacquiao will have trouble finding the elusive Bradley. A decision is the most likely result. For a Pacquiao decision the odds are approx 11/10 (2.10) and Bradley 11/4 (3.75). Therefore a 'Bradley by decision' bet is the best value for what is likely to be a 50/50 fight.

MEXICO LINDO y QUERIDO------------Alvarez v Angulo

Fight Prediction

Saul Alvarez v Alfredo Angulo

MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Sat, March 8, 2014 at 9 PM ET

12 rounds, Showtime Pay Per View

PREDICTION: Alvarez early knockout / stoppage

Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez’s last two opponents were Floyd Mayweather and Austin Trout. Styles make fights and those two fighters have preccisely the styles to make Alvarez look bad. That is, they are fighters who move well on their feet and do not put a lot of pressure on, rather choosing to box from a distance and pick their spots to attack and quickly retreat.

Alfredo Angulo is the complete opposite. He is flat footed and likes to fight in close which is perfect for Canelo’s counter punching style. Angulo has been hand picked as Canelo’s next opponent to enable him to win back his reputation as a vicious and feared knockout artist. 

Angulo has fought Jorge Silva and Erislandy Lara in his last two outings. While both were undersized opponents, he was still hurt early by Jorge and had to quit against Lara due to a battering that caused a serious eye injury. His claim to fame is dropping Lara two times on his way to being outboxed in an exciting loss. This has led him to a big payday vs Canelo and he will have to earn it. Unlike his previous two opponents, Canelo is powerful and is not suceptable to being pressured.

The following video shows a blueprint of how to beat Angulo. All clips were taken from only  the first round of the respective fights. No more evidence is needed. It involves what is a fairly simple task of countering Angulo’s jab. Just watch as Angulo throws out very slow lazy jabs and is repeatelty countered on them by his opponents right hand:

                                                                                                                                                                      

Angulo has a slow jab and poor footwork - a dream opponent for an adept counter puncher   

                                                                                                                                                                      

Angulo's terrible jab demonstrated in the video above combined with very slow feet plays perfectly into Canelo’s hands. His bread and butter is countering with combinations after slipping his opponent’s jab. He has amazing anticipation and times his counter perfectly with precision and power often mixing up his punches. Watch the following video where he constanly counter punches with a vicious accurate combination everytime his opponent throws a jab. Finally in the last clip he lands a devastating blow on Austin Trout over Trout's lazy jab.:

Canelo has amazing reflexes and hand speed. What is amazing about the last clip where he drops Trout, is that he starts his jab AFTER he sees Trout throwing his and lands it BEFORE him. He then slips Trout's late jab while landing with a vicious straight right himself. Against Canelo it is very important to snap the jab out quickly and then step back to avoid the counter punches. This is why he will be even more devastating against Angulo, who has a slow jab and has trouble stepping backwards. Against Canelo's counters he can only stand his ground cover up and take the subsequent beating through what is a poor guard.
                                                                                                                                                                   

Canelo is a great counter puncher who eats weak jabs for breakfast

                                                                                                                                                                   

One thing Angulo does well is cut off the ring. He does this by positioning himself over his opponents right shoulder blocking his exit from that side. This forces him to move left into range of Angulo's powerful right hand cross. This will not be effective against Canelo as he does not normally circle the ring. Instead he stands his ground and uses his immense power to back his pressuring opponent off. However Canelo does get fatigued easily, causing his workrate to drop. This might be Angulo's one chance to land that right hand.

Canelo has excellent head movement and sees punches well. Not only does this mean he can defend effectively, but he also attacks brilliantly off these subtle slips, countering with devastating power and accuracy. Watch for him to attack Angulo's weak jab constantly with these counters as shown in the videos above. This match will be a masterclass in boxing from Canelo and he will score an early dominating knockout.

Watch a behind the scenes look at the buildup to this fight: All Access Ep .1

THE MEXICAN AMERICAN WAR Chavez jr v Vera II

Julio Cesar Chavez Jr v Brian Vera  II

March 1
HBO Boxing

12 rounds 168lbs weight limit

PREDICTION: Chavez decision or KO (Vera’s granite chin permitting)

The notion of ‘controversial’ decisions has become all too commonplace in boxing. The first fight between Julio Cesar Chavez jr and Brian Vera ended in a 10 round decision win for Chavez. Many were ‘outraged’ by this result and felt the judges had ‘robbed’ Vera. However, Vera’s only claim to victory would be his much higher work rate and ability to absorb power shots with his granite chin. Chavez boxed with much more skill and intelligence.

A closer look at the first fight will reveal the subtle things Chavez did to outbox Vera.

Chavez came out moving quite well and Vera had trouble finding him. Though Vera kept firing away he only landed a low percentage of punches. With patience and intelligence Chavez picked his spots and was able to get through Vera’s guard repeatedly. He did this by disguising his punches.

In the following video Chavez lands repeatedly with his left hook. He initially mixes up his punches with shots to the body, the head and the occasional jab. Vera doesn’t know what’s coming next. Chavez disguises his punches by starting his swing low and ending high. Watch as Vera moves his right glove away from his chin to block what looks like a body shot or jab only to take a clean left hook to the chin. This happens 7 times in the first 5 rounds.

Vera in contrast was a whirlwind of activity. However he never disguised his punches so Chavez was able to see them coming. In the following video Vera throws a lot of hard shots but they are very predictable. Chavez can see where they are going to land and blocks pretty much all of them by keeping a tight guard. Also notice Vera putting full effort into every shot while Chavez only throws light punches most of the time. 

 The reason for the light punches of Chavez is that when he does throw a bomb Vera is not ready because he is not expecting the change of pace and power. An example can be seen in the following video where Chavez throws a very light right hand lead followed by a gentle jab distracting Vera who drops his guard in response. When Chavez sees the opening he all of a sudden changes pace and unloads a brutal right hand to Vera’s chin which would have dropped all but the toughest of opponents.

                      

By cleverly disguising his punches and patiently picking his spots, Chavez can easily outbox Vera. He just needs to keep it up for the full 12 rounds. In the first fight Chavez was gassed towards the end and so stopped moving, allowing Vera to steal the last 3 rounds by fighting hard to the end. This is what caused the controversy, as up to that point Chavez was in control. If fit on the 1st of March, Chavez should win with the same clever boxing described above. Combined with Vera’s incredible toughness and aggression the rematch should make for another great fight.

For a behind the scenes look at the build up to this fight watch Road To Chavez vs Vera II