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Marquez vs Alvarado
17th May on HBO
The Forum, Inglewood, California
12 rounds for :
WBO International Welterweight title
PREDICTION : Marquez excellent bet for win at 1.36.
Juan Manuel Marquez is a legend in the sport of boxing. On the other hand there is no merit to Mike Alvarado's high profile in the sport based on his boxing skill. Hence we have a complete mismatch of a fight. The odds on a Marquez win are around 1.36, and while this might look short, it is a license to print money. Marquez might be old by pro athlete standards but he would have to be elderly to lose this fight.The odds on a Marquez win are around 1.36 and while this might look short, it is a license to print money. Marquez might be old by pro athlete standards but he would have to be elderly to lose this fight.
The fight is viable only because of the high profile of both fighters. Marquez's is well earned and in no need of explanation. In contrast, Alvarado's high profile is born from the two skilless slug fests he had with Brandon Rios. More like bar brawls with gloves on, these two fights were brutal enough to draw the attention of the ignorant sadistic side of the boxing crowd and subsequently won fights of the year. Alvarado has done nothing impressive in the sport. Nonetheless due to the brutality of the Rios bouts, he is now well known in boxing circles and he along with Marquez are cashing in on this undeserved recognition.
As far as strategy there is not much to say for Alvarado. He either stands in front of his opponent with no head movement, hands up and just wings away randomly, or he moves around the ring with clumsy footwork that looks more like a sideways gallop. This means he has to stop moving to throw his combinations and when he does wing away he has quite slow hand speed and is not particularly powerful. He doesn't move after throwing his combinations. All these shortcomings add up to him being easy to counter punch, and Marquez is a legendary counter puncher.
Marquez may be getting old, but he has never relied on athleticism. In fact as a boxer he has sub standard athletic ability. He has always relied on intelligence and skill which should only get better with age. The only problem with his increasing years is loss of reflexes which could effect the timing of his counter punching.
Alvarado is the substantially bigger man than Marquez and has a 4 inch reach advantage. With this advantage he should seek to keep distance enough to land his punches but just out of range of Marquez's. Whenever Marquez tries to close the distance he should use those long arms to hit him coming in. With the weight advantage he shouldn't be moving backwards too often, rather he should be going forward backing up Marquez all the while using those long arms to keep distance. This requires great timing, footwork and intelligence. Three things Alvarado does not have.
Marquez as a master counter puncher normally likes to wait for an opponent to attack him first then retaliate. However with Alvarado unable to counter punch he should be more aggressive. When your opponent can't counter it is easier to throw long combinations because while your attacking, your opponent can't. That is why 'getting off first' against a fighter like Alvarado is important as he cannot attack unless he initiates it.
Although this fight is a big mismatch, pro boxing is a sport such that these fights can still be exciting to watch. It will be interesting to see how a master like Marquez picks apart a very amateurish Alvarado and it could get brutal if Marquez is aggressive. However it is more likely for Marquez to cruise to an easy decision win in preparation for a blockbuster next fight. Either way, a bet on a Marquez win is as near to a sure thing as you can get.
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